The way we invest in rail is changing
The Department for Transport is updating its guidance on the way funding for rail improvement schemes is assessed.
Andrew GleesonSenior Partnership and Research Grant Manager, RSSB
In recent years, a number of improvement projects have been undertaken to expand the GB rail network. They included reopening closed railway lines and stations, building new stations, and making freight-only lines suitable for passenger trains. The work was funded by government through the £500m Restoring Your Railway programme. Proposals were assessed under the programme using the best practise defined in the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) and Transport Appraisal Guidance (TAG) process.
When appraising improvements in existing lines, we can use current demand data to predict changes from the improvements. However, for new rail lines and stations, there is no existing data to rely on, which makes the job of forecasting passenger numbers harder. This lack of data creates challenges for standard appraisal methods, especially in forecasting and assessing future revenue. Other socio-economic benefits, like improvements in journey quality and option value, are also difficult to capture.
In 2021, RSSB launched a project called Rail Openings Appraisal (COF-ECO-ROA) to develop a better way to forecast the benefits of the new schemes. The goal was to improve the process for forecasting demand and to better estimate the benefit to passengers.
The multimodal approach was developed by RSSB in partnership with the Institute for Transport Studies as part of the COF-ECO-ROA project. This project wrapped up in 2023.
The multimodal approach accounts for forecast demand as well as other influential elements. For example, it accounts for the aim of attracting passengers from other modes of transport, such as buses and private vehicles. It also accounts for how a positive passenger experience can increase demand over time.
The analysis was supported by data from real schemes proposed under the Restoring Your Railway programme and was fed back into the process to improve appraisal of existing schemes. The multimodal approach was successfully used to appraise proposals in three case studies. In these studies, it demonstrated a significant impact on demand estimates.
The DfT is now updating its official TAG to incorporate this new research and to implement some of the technical recommendations from the project. The revised guidance will give industry a better way to express the business case and benefits to customers of new rail projects. And, we hope, it will help attract more passengers back to train travel.
Read the full Rail Openings Appraisal report to find out more.
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