Responding better to extreme weather events
Operational planning that evaluates safety risk, economic impact, and drivability of proposed speed restrictions
Rail is already aware of, responding to, and preparing for, impacts from climate change. A new tool called PRIMA (short for Proportionate Risk when Implementing Mitigating speeds to Assets) can help prepare for potential collapse of earthworks due to heavy rainfall, and before they happen.
As climate change progresses, we become more aware of the challenges it brings. While this is hardly welcome news, it does give us the potential to change our preparations for such extreme events, if we have appropriate tools.
While climate change has impacts throughout rail, risk from collapsed earthworks following intense rainfall has been a strong concern in recent years, especially since the tragic crash at Carmont in 2020. Since that crash, earthworks failures have been ‘top of mind’ for those impacted, namely asset managers, route control staff, signallers, drivers, and passengers.
One response to date has been the imposition of blanket speed restrictions. In practice, while these can prevent some incidents or accidents on the affected part of the network, they also have negative knock-on effects elsewhere, such as delayed trains and longer journeys. Sometimes these knock-on effects have been severe, causing serious disruptions to the established rail timetable over prolonged periods. In turn, this can cause extremely large financial costs and penalties.
Somehow, when extreme rainfall occurs, a balance needs to be found between compelling all trains in the affected region to ‘go slow’ and completely disregarding the increased likelihood of earthwork collapse. In other words, we need a proportionate response, and, ideally, in advance of extreme rainfall.
Enter PRIMA, a new tool to help you manage the risk from collapsed earthworks due to extreme rainfall. PRIMA balances the train derailment risk caused by asset failures during severe rainfall with the knock-on risk of implementing speed restrictions. It helps operational planning by evaluating not only the safety risk but also the economic impact and drivability of the proposed speed restrictions.
It helps asset managers, route planners, signallers, drivers, and passengers by enabling the continuation of service in the most effective way when there is extreme rainfall. As such, PRIMA provides an important resilience capability for rail.
In addition, PRIMA can be used in advance to evaluate these risks and propose new operational plans if such a rainfall event occurs. This means that for much of the time, the operational plans recommended by PRIMA will not be used, however they are there for when they are needed. This also helps reduce stress and concern among people in the affected roles. They can rest assured that PRIMA has already made recommendations about what, and where, particular speed restrictions should be applied, before extreme rainfall occurs. Even if extreme rainfall occurs very rapidly, rail operators can use the proportionate operational plans prepared in advance by PRIMA.
A pilot is currently underway in the North West and Central region. This will inform the national rollout of this solution alongside Network Rail. However, we’re very keen to talk to other parts of industry as well, so please get in touch.
See how PRIMA’s data visualisations capabilities will support you deliver the best adverse weather response.
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