Safety Risk Analysis
Managing risk with real data and tried-and-tested approaches
We are world leaders in safety risk modelling and quantified risk analysis. We also maintain a suite of risk models and tools.
Our members use our models, tools and analysis to manage risk informed by real data and tried-and-tested approaches. This enables them to make decisions that are good for safety and good for business in a way that is consistent, cost-effective, rational, and defendable.
Marcus Dacre, Head of Risk and Safety Intelligence
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Our Safety Risk Model (SRM) provides a network-wide view of safety risk. It supports evidence- and risk-based decision making. It describes and quantifies the different risks associated with operating and maintaining the GB mainline railway.
It helps decision makers set safety priorities and analyse safety-related costs and benefits. This enables them to meet legal requirements and wider business objectives confidently and demonstrably.
The SRM helps users to be objective in the way they manage safety. It ensures a proportionate response when there are headline-making events. It can save the industry money by ensuring the most cost beneficial areas are targeted.
The SRM provides a trusted starting point for quantified risk analysis. It has supported many key industry decisions that have improved safety and reduced costs. Visit our SRM webpages for more information.
Our SRM can be used to support risk assessments and to understand how the risk from a company’s operation compares with and contributes to the network-wide risk. This helps when taking and justifying safety-related decisions in line with the rail industry's Taking Safety Decisions framework.
SRM estimates are used to calibrate other industry risk tools. These include RSSB's Precursor Indicator Model, which monitors train accident risk, and Network Rail’s tools to manage risk from signal over-runs and at level crossings.
RSSB members and affiliates can access resources on the SRM: Version 9 on our website. They can also the ‘Table of national results SRM v9’.
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Duty-holders can access the national and regional SRM version 9 results via an interactive Power BI dashboard.
The Risk Profile Tool (RPT) helps companies assess safety risk to make targeted interventions that can improve safety and reduce cost. It combines information from three sources:
Safety Risk Model (SRM),
operator’s operation,
operator’s event data in the Safety Management Intelligence System.
The RPT allows users to:
select how they view data
filter for hazardous events of interest
put hazardous events out of scope
benchmark against the national risk profile.
It helps companies take a more personalised look at risk, tailoring SRM outputs to include information specific to their operations.
It generates intelligence that forms an evidence base for companies. This helps companies decide where to invest time and resource to improve safety.
The RPT is currently based on an old version of the SRM (v8.5). We’re planning the next update and plan to realign the SRM and RPT when version 10 of the SRM is released.
The RPT is available to RSSB members and affiliates. It can be accessed on our website. There are also helpful videos that explain how to get the most out of the tool.
Paul Murray, Lead Intelligence Analyst
The Precursor Indicator Model (PIM) monitors trends in the risk from train accidents. It tracks over 50 potential causes of collision or derailment, measuring the associated risk and how it is changing over time.
The model is based on the near misses, faults, failures, errors, and actions from the past year that, in other circumstances, could have led to an accident.
PIM outputs are available in an interactive Power BI dashboard. The dashboard features a national view of the risk and a regional breakdown. A separate Hybrid PIM dashboard shows a longer-term moving average for those precursors most impacted by weather. A video overview of the tool can be found on our website.
The PIM allows industry to understand how internal and external changes are affecting train accident risk. It helps to identify adverse trends and areas where improvement effort should be focused to reduce train accident risk.
We are enhancing the PIM further to provide even more value to our members. The developments include providing more granular information for some key risk areas and ensuring closer alignment between the SRM and the PIM.
The new PIM is proving very useful within the region in looking at and focusing on where we have risks. Thank you for making it happen and for incorporating our comments.
The PIM dashboards and supporting guidance are available to RSSB members and affiliates on our website. The guidance explains how to use the dashboards, the detail of each precursor, and the role of the PIM in monitoring train accident risk.
Alongside the dashboards, there are data files that contain details of the risk breakdown and an event list.
Ricky Campion, Senior Intelligence Analyst
As recognised leaders in quantified risk analysis (QRA) and risk modelling, we provide bespoke risk analysis support on a consultancy basis to help individual operators tackle their specific problems.
Many decisions don’t require QRA, but it can be a powerful tool. It is particularly useful when decisions impact the risk from rare events, such as major train accidents, or require complex trade-offs between costs and benefits.
To keep GB rail at the cutting edge of risk modelling, we are working with colleagues and the wider industry on a Future Risk Modelling Research Programme. It will exploit new techniques and data to support holistic decisions that deliver a safe, affordable, and high-performing railway.
Our approach to analysing risk enables smarter and more cost-effective safety management. It helps to ensure that people’s safety is protected and wider business objectives are met.
RSSB’s position at the centre of the GB railway enables us to take a whole-system view. We can evaluate the impact of a decision on different aspects of a company’s safety risk. We can also evaluate its impact on performance and model how this leads to additional knock-on risk from some types of accident.
For example, we have developed a decision support tool to help plan operational responses to extreme weather. We previously used a similar approach to support a change in the rules for what to do when a train radio fails.
We are also modelling risk at an increasingly granular level. For example, we are developing a tool to evaluate the risk benefits of preventing a train from deviating away from the track if it derails. It is based on a model that evaluates risk for 25m track sections across the network. The tool will enable our members to target fitment of devices that can guide a derailed train to improve safety and provide value for money.
A lot of our work on cross-cutting issues is steered by industry risk groups or standards committees. Please get in touch via our customer portal if you have a problem we can help with.
The Red Aspect Approaches to Signals (RAATS) toolkit provides data on how trains are approaching signals across the network. A particular focus is how often trains approach or stop at a red signal.
RAATS is based on a rich set of operational train data that we update every two weeks. It provides the ability to analyse trends over time and at different locations. It enables analysis of factors such as the type of approach, train type, the time of day, and day of week.
RAATS helps our members identify issues and target improvements that can reduce the risk of SPADs and make the network safer.
SPADs are one of the main hazards in rail operations. They can cause serious accidents such as train collisions and derailments. To accurately understand SPAD risk, it is essential to know how often trains approach red signals.
Analysis of RAATS improves the understanding of red aspect approaches and how they impact SPAD risk. Members can use RAATS to improve safety risk assessment and risk modelling, performance assessment, timetable planning, and driver and signaller training.
RAATS is a web-based tool and can be accessed by our member on our website.
Xiaocheng Ge, Senior Intelligence Analyst
The SPAD Risk Ranking Tool collects structured information about each SPAD to help track how overall SPAD risk trends are changing over time. The information collected to support risk ranking can be used to inform the SPAD investigation process.
The tool was designed to track the risk arising from SPADs across the GB mainline railway network. This enables the industry to work collaboratively to identify and respond to concerns.
The tool also helps members comply with RIS-3119-TOM.
The SPAD Risk Ranking Tool is available to our members and affiliates via our website. Our site also features a video and downloadable guidance to promote better use of the tool.
Clifton Masdea, Risk and Safety Intelligence Analyst
RSSB members can download the Buffer Stop Risk Assessment tool from the RSSB website.
Dave Griffin, Principal System Safety Engineer
The Buffer Stop Risk Assessment Tool considers both the likelihood of buffer stop overrun and the potential consequences.
It can be used to make a quantified estimate of safety risk in terms of fatalities and weighted injuries per year for each buffer stop at a terminal station.
The tool takes the following factors into consideration:
risk to passengers and staff on the train
risk to passengers and the public on the station concourse
the number of trains approaching the buffers and their characteristics
the type of buffer stop and its compatibility with the train
items in the overrun risk zone and the effect of end impact walls.
The Excel-based Buffer Stop Risk Assessment Tool enables rail companies to assess the risks at terminal platforms quickly and efficiently. It includes the range of possible overrun scenarios that contribute to the risk. These include low-speed events, which may result in minor injuries, and higher speeds events, which can have more significant consequences.
The tool is designed to meet the requirements of Section 11 of RIS-7016-INS. It should be used in conjunction with GIGN5633.
